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Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course

René M. van Westen, Michael Kliphuis, Henk A. Dijkstra

2024 · Science Advances

PhysicsStatistics & probability
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From the abstract

One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse because of the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in complex global climate models by strong freshwater forcing, the processes of an AMOC tipping event have so far not been investigated. Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Reanalysis products indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. The early warning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones, which, when applied to our simulated tipping event, turn out to be sensitive to the analyzed time interval before tipping.

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3 selected excerpts · 3 total mentions

burkaman
Recommendation · rule
I'd recommend reading this article, as it's about a new study that would not have been included in the past articles you read. > Without warm water flowing toward the Arctic, he added, winter sea ice could expand as far south as England From the study itself (https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189): > Under the AMOC collapse, the Arctic (March) sea-ice pack extends down to 50°N Here's where 50°N intersects Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50th_parallel_north
Original comment Extreme Climate Impacts from Collapse of AMOC Could Be Worse Than Expected
magicalhippo
Neutral mention · rule
Not Day after Tomorrow abruptly. There are indications[1] most of the change can happen over as little as 50 years, which in the grand scheme of things is pretty darn fast. Seems it can get quite brutal too here in Norway: The trends are even more notable when considering particular months (Fig. 3B). As an example, February temperatures for Bergen (Norway) will drop by about 3.5°C per decade (Fig. 3D). Granted that's a simulation that's of the AMOC stability, YMMV and all that. [1]: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Original comment Global Catastrophe Looms as Key Ocean Current Nears Collapse, Experts Warn
lamontcg
Neutral mention · rule
The study published today ("Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course"): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189 > They do not present a particular time period estimate for reaching the tipping point, as more observations of the ocean circulation at this latitude will be needed for that, but they note about last year’s Ditlevsen study that “their estimate of the tipping point (2025 to 2095, 95% confidence level) could be accurate.” The Ditlevsen study ("Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation"): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w
Original comment New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation "is on tipping course"

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