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Satellite mega-constellations create risks in Low Earth Orbit, the atmosphere and on Earth

Aaron C. Boley, Michael Byers

2021 · Scientific Reports

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AbstractThe rapid development of mega-constellations risks multiple tragedies of the commons, including tragedies to ground-based astronomy, Earth orbit, and Earth’s upper atmosphere. Moreover, the connections between the Earth and space environments are inadequately taken into account by the adoption of a consumer electronic model applied to space assets. For example, we point out that satellite re-entries from the Starlink mega-constellation alone could deposit more aluminum into Earth’s upper atmosphere than what is done through meteoroids; they could thus become the dominant source of high-altitude alumina. Using simple models, we also show that untracked debris will lead to potentially dangerous on-orbit collisions on a regular basis due to the large number of satellites within mega-constellation orbital shells. The total cross-section of satellites in these constellations also greatly increases the risk of impacts due to meteoroids. De facto orbit occupation by single actors, inadequate regulatory frameworks, and the possibility of free-riding exacerbate these risks. International cooperation is urgently needed, along with a regulatory system that takes into account the effects of tens of thousands of satellites.

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eesmith
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That aluminum is not in the upper atmosphere. Quoting https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-89909-7.pdf > ... the satellites are mostly aluminum; most meteoroids, in contrast, contain less than 1% Al by mass 25 . Thus, depending on the atmospheric residence time of material from reentered satellites, each mega-constellation will produce fine particulates that could greatly exceed natural forms of high-altitude atmospheric aluminum deposition, particularly if the full numbers of envisaged satellites are launched. Anthropogenic deposition of aluminum in the atmosphere has long been proposed in the context of geoengineering as a way to alter Earth’s albedo 26 . These…
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proposals have been scientifically controversial and controlled experiments encountered substantial opposition 27 . Mega-constellations will begin this process as an uncontrolled experiment 28 . Or from https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.adr9689 > Concerns are mostly focused on aluminum, the most common component in satellites. If the disintegrated metal ends up as aluminum oxide or hydroxide, it can react with hydrogen chloride — the main reservoir of chlorine in the stratosphere, a hangover from the days of chlorofluorocarbons — to produce aluminum chloride. Hydrogen chloride is a relatively safe repository for chlorine, but aluminum chloride is easily split apart by light, freeing the chlorine to destroy ozone. Metal aerosols could also seed the creation of more polar stratospheric clouds, which catalyze reactions that liberate destructive forms of chlorine. “One can speculate, but without critical laboratory measurements of the chemistry, it’s very hard to know [the effects],” says John Plane, an atmospheric chemist at the University of Leeds. ... “You have to wonder whether [SpaceX] is creating a major problem 30 years from now,” Lionnet says.
tsimionescu
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Any collision has a chance to knock things at orbital speeds in any direction. Anything launched away from the earth will be flung towards other orbits at something close to the 28,000km/h speeds of LEO. Here is an article in Nature [0] discussing other risks, and mentioning that LEO is already in the early stages of Kessler Syndrome, while SpaceX alone is seeking to launch as many extra satellites as there are tracked pieces of debris already in orbit, with several other companies having similar plans. They also mention that debris in one orbit can cross to other orbits. [0] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-89909-7

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