One of the articles linked here [1] reminded me of the great Ranulph Glanville, and his "Inside Every White Box There Are Two Black Boxes Trying To Get Out" [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083
Evaluating Large Language Models in Theory of Mind Tasks
Michal Kosinski
2023 · arXiv
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From the abstract
Eleven Large Language Models (LLMs) were assessed using a custom-made battery of false-belief tasks, considered a gold standard in testing Theory of Mind (ToM) in humans. The battery included 640 prompts spread across 40 diverse tasks, each one including a false-belief scenario, three closely matched true-belief control scenarios, and the reversed versions of all four. To solve a single task, a model needed to correctly answer 16 prompts across all eight scenarios. Smaller and older models solved no tasks; GPT-3-davinci-003 (from November 2022) and ChatGPT-3.5-turbo (from March 2023) solved 20% of the tasks; ChatGPT-4 (from June 2023) solved 75% of the tasks, matching the performance of six-year-old children observed in past studies. We explore the potential interpretation of these findings, including the intriguing possibility that ToM, previously considered exclusive to humans, may have spontaneously emerged as a byproduct of LLMs' improving language skills.
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> figuring out what people are thinking in person Have you seen the latest research, where GPT-4 is shown to have "Theory of Mind"-like ability (what people are thinking) at a human 7-year old level? https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083
Another poster shared a link to this paper last week for Theory of Mind: https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083 We're seeing those other capabilities emerge; like being able to play chess though it's not been trained to do so. That is, these LLMs are displaying emergent abilities associated with reasoning. These LLMs aren't R. Daneel Olivaw or R2D2 (which is what I think of when I think of the original term for AI, and what we took to calling AGI). We're closer to seeing the just-the-facts AIs we encounter in Blindsight. Intelligence without awareness. Funny that we still have to use science fiction to make our comparisons because our philosophy of intelligence, mind, and consciousness are insufficient to speak on the matter clearly.
Welll.... Theory of Mind May Have Spontaneously Emerged in Large Language Models - https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083 Previously discussed - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34730365
We do have a way to verify understanding: causality. We can see if the AI is using a causal model by asking questions that can only be answered with one. Take the theory of mind questions that reveal the LLMs do have a basic theory of mind: https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083.
It matters to understand how things work in order to understand their behaviour and react properly. I've seen people draw conclusions from applying Theory of Mind tests to LLMs (https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083). Those psychological were designed to assess humans psychological abilities or deficiencies, they assume that the language used by the human respondent reflects their continued and deep understanding of others' state of mind. In LLMs, there is no understanding involved. Dismissing the Chinese Room argument is an ostrich strategy. You're refusing to consider its lack of understanding despite knowing pretty well how an LLM work, because you don't want to ascribe understanding to humans, I suppose?
There's more than comprehension. It can do some amount of higher order reasoning: https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083 "Theory of mind (ToM), or the ability to impute unobservable mental states to others, is central to human social interactions, communication, empathy, self-consciousness, and morality. We administer classic false-belief tasks, widely used to test ToM in humans, to several language models, without any examples or pre-training. Our results show that models published before 2022 show virtually no ability to solve ToM tasks. Yet, the January 2022 version of GPT-3 (davinci-002) solved 70% of ToM tasks, a performance comparable with that of seven-year-old children.…
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Moreover, its November 2022 version (davinci-003), solved 93% of ToM tasks, a performance comparable with that of nine-year-old children. These findings suggest that ToM-like ability (thus far considered to be uniquely human) may have spontaneously emerged as a byproduct of language models' improving language skills."
"Theory of Mind May Have Spontaneously Emerged in Large Language Models" https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083 'Theory of mind (ToM), or the ability to impute unobservable mental states to others, is central to human social interactions, communication, empathy, self-consciousness, and morality. We administer classic false-belief tasks, widely used to test ToM in humans, to several language models, without any examples or pre-training. Our results show that models published before 2022 show virtually no ability to solve ToM tasks. Yet, the January 2022 version of GPT-3 (davinci-002) solved 70% of ToM tasks, a performance comparable with that of seven-year-old children.…
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Moreover, its November 2022 version (davinci-003), solved 93% of ToM tasks, a performance comparable with that of nine-year-old children. These findings suggest that ToM-like ability (thus far considered to be uniquely human) may have spontaneously emerged as a byproduct of language models' improving language skills.'
I see a lot of confident assertions of this type (LLMs don’t actually understand anything, cannot be creative, cannot be conscious, etc.), but never any data to substantiate the claim. This recent paper suggests that recent LLMs may be acquiring theory of mind (or something analogous to it): https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083v1 Some excerpts: > We administer classic false-belief tasks, widely used to test ToM in humans, to several language models, without any examples or pre-training. Our results show that models published before 2022 show virtually no ability to solve ToM tasks. Yet, the January 2022 version of GPT- 3 (davinci-002) solved 70% of ToM tasks, a performance…
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comparable with that of seven-year-old children. Moreover, its November 2022 version (davinci-003), solved 93% of ToM tasks, a performance comparable with that of nine-year-old children. > Large language models are likely candidates to spontaneously develop ToM. Human language is replete with descriptions of mental states and protagonists holding divergent beliefs, thoughts, and desires. Thus, a model trained to generate and interpret human-like language would greatly benefit from possessing ToM. > While such results should be interpreted with caution, they suggest that the recently published language models possess the ability to impute unobservable mental states to others, or ToM. Moreover, models’ performance clearly grows with their complexity and publication date, and there is no reason to assume that their it should plateau anytime soon. Finally, there is neither an indication that ToM-like ability was deliberately engineered into these models, nor research demonstrating that scientists know how to achieve that. Thus, we hypothesize that ToM-like ability emerged spontaneously and autonomously, as a byproduct of models’ increasing language ability.
For all we know about intelligence/consciousness, it may be an emergent behaviour of complex systems. See this cool this paper, "Theory of Mind May Have Spontaneously Emerged in Large Language Models" https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02083
Keep following the thread.
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