Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock
2023 · arXiv
We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.
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That is what open ai’s non-profit economic research arm has claimed. LLMs will fundamentally change how we interact with the world like the Internet did. It will take time like the Internet and a couple of hype cycle pops but it will change the way we do things. It will help a single human do more in a white collar world. https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130
Penn and OpenAI claimed: "Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted." https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130
See Appendix D in https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130.pdf OpenAI’s “GPTs are GPTs: An early look at the labor market impact potential of large language models” It’s not just construction workers. Still safe to be a pro athlete and a short order cook, too!
Yes. If you have money, you are naturally ahead. So this digital divide will soon transform into the class divide. With the AI rapidly evolving, most of the middle-class jobs will be affected. There was a paper[0] on it that shows all the jobs that will be affected by current as well as future generation of AI. With OpenAI eating up their own ecosystem, the gold rush is on. Few will get spared on the process but pretty sure their (OAI) end goal is to get money from everyone. AI will be like new electricity. You will have to pay for it otherwise you can't function in the society. And once we are there without any middle class jobs, the socio-economic divide will be huge.…
Southpark even created a new special regarding this matter. The funny thing is, while being so relevant in the long term, no one is talking about it. Why? Okay on top of that, we are currently in the point of time where we have thinking tool. Guys, we have a tool that thinks on its own and can alter the decision in real world. No, there was never such a tool before. People had to manually use the tool to create anything. Now a tool creates things. That is scary. [0]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130
1. "I think GPT-3 is artificial general intelligence, AGI. I think GPT-3 is as intelligent as a human. And I think that it is probably more intelligent than a human in a restricted way… in many ways it is more purely intelligent than humans are. I think humans are approximating what GPT-3 is doing, not vice versa.” — Connor Leahy, co-founder of EleutherAI, creator of GPT-J (November 2020) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrV19SjKUss&t=175s 2. https://www.noemamag.com/artificial-general-intelligence-is-... 3. Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4. https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712 The especially funny thing bout this paper is that the…
original title in the tex source on that arxiv page is "First Contact With an AGI System" \title {%\textbf {WORK IN PROGRESS - DO NOT SHARE} \\ %First Contact With an AGI System} \textbf {Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence:} \\ \textbf {Early experiments with GPT-4}} 4. Artificial muses: Generative Artificial Intelligence Chatbots Have Risen to Human-Level Creativity. These guys just switched the order of two words so they wouldn't have to call it AGI lol. https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12003 5. Open ai. GPTs are GPTs (General Purpose Technologies): An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models - https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130 6. Accuracy of a Generative Artificial Intelligence Model in a Complex Diagnostic Challenge - The old switcheroo again. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/28064... There isn't a testable definition of General Intelligence that GPT-4 would fail that a chunk of humans also wouldn't. If there are some humans that can't pass your bar of general intelligence then it is not a test of general intelligence.
You don't need to just take one source. OpenAI authored their own paper [1] on the economic impacts of just LLMs: "Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted." Goldman Sachs Research just pushlished their own analysis as well. [2] Their conclusions are "As tools using advances in natural language processing work their way into businesses and society, they could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period." and…
"Analyzing databases detailing the task content of over 900 occupations, our economists estimate that roughly two-thirds of U.S. occupations are exposed to some degree of automation by AI. They further estimate that, of those occupations that are exposed, roughly a quarter to as much as half of their workload could be replaced." [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130.pdf [2] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/generative-ai-co...
The study didn't say they will all simply lose their job? Did you just read the headline and assume "80% of jobs will be impacted by GPT" means they lose their jobs? Impacted doesn't mean completely automate either, it can just be assisting, improving efficiency, better quality, etc. Of the 80% impacted they said GPT can help with only 10% of their work activities on average. So unless the other 90% of their job was doing nothing and GPT isn't automating the 10% I don't think they'll have to worry too much. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130.pdf
Hmm... Perhaps "high income workers" take serious this paper: "OpenAI publishes paper on the economic impact of GPT-4: Higher income workers most exposed" https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/11whznb/openai_... https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130
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