R. Daniel Bressler
2021 · Nature Communications
Abstract Many studies project that climate change can cause a significant number of excess deaths. Yet, in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that determine the social cost of carbon (SCC) and prescribe optimal climate policy, human mortality impacts are limited and not updated to the latest scientific understanding. This study extends the DICE-2016 IAM to explicitly include temperature-related mortality impacts by estimating a climate-mortality damage function. We introduce a metric, the mortality cost of carbon (MCC), that estimates the number of deaths caused by the emissions of one additional metric ton of CO2. In the baseline emissions scenario, the 2020 MCC is 2.26 × 10 ‒4 [low to high estimate −1.71× 10 ‒4 to 6.78 × 10 ‒4 ] excess deaths per metric ton of 2020 emissions. This implies that adding 4,434 metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2020—equivalent to the lifetime emissions of 3.5 average Americans—causes one excess death globally in expectation between 2020-2100. Incorporating mortality costs increases the 2020 SCC from $37 to $258 [−$69 to $545] per metric ton in the baseline emissions scenario. Optimal climate policy changes from gradual emissions reductions starting in 2050 to full decarbonization by 2050 when mortality is considered.
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Thing with climate change is that at like semi bad scenario it will kill about million people yearly https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24487-w and those everybody is going to die scenarios are also very unlikely and basically scifi story at this point.
Your dryer does actually cause some real portion of attributable human suffering. It's easy to armchair discuss this, but have a look at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24487-w
Let’s not be hyperbolic. Without even getting into the futility of predicting something as complex as future mortality rates, the worst case projections go into tens of millions additional deaths due to climate change over the century (if that sounds like a lot, global deaths per _year_ are on the order of 50 million, so this is a few percent increase). https://impactlab.org/research/valuing-the-global-mortality-... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24487-w
The World Bank has a great resource here which lists out pricing for emissions trading systems (ETS) and carbon tax by country.[0] (Map & Data > Price > Type of Instrument). Highest carbon taxes are $100+ / ton (Sweden, Switzerland, Lichenstein), high initial value for trade is about $50 (EU, Switzerland). We are a bit behind in the US in credits or taxes, we are now treating the social cost at $51, but not using that for tax or trade policy.[1] There's one more number that is useful to get a numerical sense of the costs: $258 / ton, an estimate of the actual cost to society. [2] [0] https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cost-of-carbon-po... [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24487-w
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