Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen, Wolfgang Lucht
Jørgen Bendtsen, Sarah E. Cornell, Jonathan F. Donges, Markus Drüke, Ingo Fetzer, Govindasamy Bala, Werner von Bloh, Georg Feulner, Stephanie Fiedler, Dieter Gerten, Tom Gleeson, Matthias Hofmann, Willem Huiskamp, Matti Kummu, Chinchu Mohan, David Nogués-Bravo, Stefan Petri, Miina Porkka, Stefan Rahmstorf, Sibyll Schaphoff, Kirsten Thonicke, Arne Tobian, Vili Virkki, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Lisa Weber, Johan Rockström
2023 · Science Advances
This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
Metadata: Crossref. Abstracts retain their original authors’ rights.
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8 selected excerpts · 8 total mentions
> which will put a massive strain on our resources True, but again, scientists are saying that we're already putting massive strain on our ecological resources, and the strain is only increasing. Not just climate change, but ocean acidification, modification of biogeochemical balances, habitat destruction, etc. We are at genuine risk of accidentally wrecking the ecosystems we depend on. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
I disagree. The world has ~8.2B people, and has blown past 6 out of 9 planetary boundaries while headed to 9-10B people by 2100 (due to population momentum). Humanity will successfully continue on with an order of magnitude reduction in that number 150-200 years from now, based on a median global TFR of ~0.5-1. TFR isn’t going to 0. We can plan accordingly, if we choose to. We are currently on the unsustainable path; a lower TFR puts us closer to sustainability. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population
I dug through the article and the paper it references, and I can't find any definition of what "Biosphere integrity: Genetic" is supposed to be. The paper references two things under "Biosphere" but neither of them sound like something "Genetic" would refer to. EDIT: Managed to find it, it's on https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 .
I skimmed the background article "Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries." [0] The boundaries don't seem especially helpful. * They don't seem to account for adaption, in particular by humans. Before December 1903 no powered airplane had ever achieved liftoff in the history of humankind. Within about 70 years jet travel became close to ubiquitous as a means of transportation in the developed world. * There does not seem to be much acknowledgment of uncertainty in the science behind the boundaries. I'm unqualified to make judgements about things like ocean acidification but seeing estimates presented as bald facts does not give the reader much confidence. * They…
don't have much value as a rhetorical device to persuade people to care about the environment. The basic argument seems to be that we're moving out of the conditions that prevailed across the Holocene, so that must be bad. Most people find flooded basements or crop failures more persuasive. We're torching the environment IMO but there are better ways to get people focused on that and to fix it. Restoring marshlands or changing the albedo of cities seem like a better path. Edit: typo [0] https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
They are identified as the largest contributing factors to Holocene maintence[1]. The thresholds are boundaries where long-term Holocene maintenance no longer holds. Just curious, is Holocene maintenance is important to you? 1. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
> You believe Not just me, this is the mainstream business-as-usual expectation. Collapse of breadbasket regions tends to be a Very Bad Thing. What did you think "unsustainable" meant, anyway? https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/only-60-years-of-... https://theconversation.com/farmers-are-depleting-the-ogalla... https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 > will lead to society's destruction Technically by "self-destruct" I meant that the agriculture system destroys itself, by somehow undermining its own mechanisms of support. How much of "society" gets pulled down with it? Well, that's up to us to decide... The faster we transition to sustainable agriculture, the better.
I do think that energy can be shifted much more rapidly to low-carbon forms such as solar and wind. That can be done. And I don't view it as "degrowth" to stop wasting so much energy on pointless endeavours such as e.g. oversized single-occupant petrol-engine vehicles for a daily urban commute to an office. But even if we achieve that tomorrow, that just one of the needed wins, e.g. the seas would still be full of plastic debris and fertiliser run-off. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 We’ve already accidentally geoengineered the whole planet. We might as well understand what we're doing and steer it better. As well as, not instead of.
It’s wild how people fret about birth rate declines while we’re also openly stealing from the future. Humans are disappointing. https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39033002 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
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