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Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Johan Rockström, Joyeeta Gupta, Dahe Qin

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Steven J. Lade, Jesse F. Abrams, Lauren S. Andersen, David I. Armstrong McKay, Xuemei Bai, Govindasamy Bala, Stuart E. Bunn, Daniel Ciobanu, Fabrice DeClerck, Kristie Ebi, Lauren Gifford, Christopher Gordon, Syezlin Hasan, Norichika Kanie, Timothy M. Lenton, Sina Loriani, Diana M. Liverman, Awaz Mohamed, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Daniel Ospina, Klaudia Prodani, Crelis Rammelt, Boris Sakschewski, Joeri Scholtens, Ben Stewart-Koster, Thejna Tharammal, Detlef van Vuuren, Peter H. Verburg, Ricarda Winkelmann, Caroline Zimm, Elena M. Bennett, Stefan Bringezu, Wendy Broadgate, Pamela A. Green, Lei Huang, Lisa Jacobson, Christopher Ndehedehe, Simona Pedde, Juan Rocha, Marten Scheffer, Lena Schulte-Uebbing, Wim de Vries, Cunde Xiao, Chi Xu, Xinwu Xu, Noelia Zafra-Calvo, Xin Zhang

2023 · Nature

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Abstract The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked 1–3 , yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently 4,5 . Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice) 4 . The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

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jurgenaut23
Neutral mention · rule
If you read "Limits to Growth" as if it were some contemporary influencer or futurist's content, this might indeed be disappointing. But the truth is, "Limits to Growth" is one of the first attempt to articulate the fundamental limits to our strategy as a civilization. It is outlining how fundamentally flawed it is. One might justifiably argue that the quantitative predictions made by the book hinder, or even compromise, the deeper, more important point of it. But the latter was unfortunately correct, and plenty of quantitative data are there to back it up: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06083-8.
Original comment The Limits to Growth (1972)
myshpa
Neutral mention · rule
Equilibrium? We're in the overshoot, and have crossed safe boundaries long ago. Our global food system is the primary driver of biodiversity loss https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/our-glob... Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries Our global food system is the primary driver of biodiversity loss Safe and just Earth system boundaries https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06083-8
Original comment Vegan diet has 30% of the environmental impact of high-meat diet, major study

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