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Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections

G. Supran, S. Rahmstorf, N. Oreskes

2023 · Science

Science & research
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From the abstract

Climate projections by the fossil fuel industry have never been assessed. On the basis of company records, we quantitatively evaluated all available global warming projections documented by—and in many cases modeled by—Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp scientists between 1977 and 2003. We find that most of their projections accurately forecast warming that is consistent with subsequent observations. Their projections were also consistent with, and at least as skillful as, those of independent academic and government models. Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp also correctly rejected the prospect of a coming ice age, accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would first be detected, and reasonably estimated the “carbon budget” for holding warming below 2°C. On each of these points, however, the company’s public statements about climate science contradicted its own scientific data.

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In the conversation

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6 selected excerpts · 6 total mentions

runamok
Neutral mention · rule
I think of the corporate death penalty as being more appropriate when leadership knew exactly what was going on and chose profits over people. Exxon, see https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063. Purdue Pharma, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purdue_Pharma. Company gets sold for parts and Cauitebgoes to prison probably for life due to the amount of lives they potentially destroyed. Pretty much all the tobacco companies knew how harmful their product and made a concerted effort to fund their own bogus studies to throw up a smoke screen. Facebook makes billions from (for example) scams and fraudulent ads: https://www.reuters.com/investigations/meta-is-earning-fortu.... Maybe don't throw their CEO in prison but at least fine them 10x the profit they made vs. the usual .0001%.
Original comment Waymo blocking ambulance during deadly Austin shooting
PartiallyTyped
Neutral mention · rule
They both cite the same study [1]. And [1] is from this post. From the other HN post: > The study published [this] Thursday in the journal Science looked at research that > Study lead author Geoffrey Supran ... > The Exxon-funded science was "actually astonishing" in its precision and accuracy, said study co-author Naomi Oreskes ... [1] https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063 | Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections G. Supran https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3846-1633 , S. Rahmstorf https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6786-7723, and N. Oreskes
Original comment New study puts a number on what 'Exxon knew' decades ago about climate science
mturmon
Neutral mention · rule
It's the release of a much-awaited study in Science today: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063 The authors have been doing work in this direction for several years. Since McKibben's substack is written for "insiders", I guess he assumed people would know where to look.
Original comment Godalmighty, Exxon Knew Everything

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