https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/d... > "Exceeding 1.5°C could also trigger multiple climate tipping points — such as breakdowns of major ocean circulation systems, abrupt thawing of boreal permafrost, and collapse of tropical coral reef systems — with abrupt, irreversible, and dangerous impacts for humanity" It helpfully comes with a citation of a paper in Science which has the exact same title, "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points": https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 > "Six CTPs become likely (with a further four possible) within the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C warming, including collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, die-off of low-latitude coral reefs, and widespread abrupt permafrost thaw."
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
David I. Armstrong McKay, Arie Staal, Jesse F. Abrams
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Ricarda Winkelmann, Boris Sakschewski, Sina Loriani, Ingo Fetzer, Sarah E. Cornell, Johan Rockström, Timothy M. Lenton
2022 · Science
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From the abstract
Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global “core” tipping elements and regional “impact” tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.
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An assessment of climate tipping points that are likely to be triggered at 1.5C degrees of warming: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 The main threats would be near-term coral reef die-offs and ice sheet collapses.
From the article: > The six tipping points "likely" to be crossed, according to the research, published in Science, are: - Greenland Ice Sheet collapse - West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse - Collapse of ocean circulation in the polar region of the North Atlantic - Coral reef die off in the low latitudes - Sudden thawing of permafrost in the Northern regions - Abrupt sea ice loss in the Barents Sea. The Science research article: Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950
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